2023年全球天然气市场将重新平衡但仍将紧张
据天然气加工新闻网5月4日报道，据国际能源署（IEA）周四表示，全球天然气市场正在逐步重新平衡，但由于向欧洲输送的管道天然气减少，预计2023年供应仍将紧张。
2022年，向欧盟输送的管道天然气减少了80%，引发了全球能源危机，欧洲和全球天然气市场遭受了重大供应冲击。
温和的天气、液化天然气出口的增加和天然气需求的强劲下降有助于缓解冲击，使欧洲的天然气储存量达到60%。
IEA在其季度天然气市场报告中表示，市场紧张程度降低，以及夏季前库存相对充足，这是对供应安全持谨慎乐观态度的理由。
该报告称，2023年天然气市场前景的改善并不能保证未来的波动……2023年全球天然气供应仍将保持紧张，全球平衡面临着异常广泛的不确定性。
这些风险包括不利的天气，如干燥的夏季、液化天然气的供应降低，以及天然气对欧洲的交付量可能进一步下降，这些风险可能会加剧市场紧张局势和价格波动。
在欧洲，2022/2023供暖季的天然气消耗量下降了创纪录的16%，即550亿立方米。
该报告称，欧盟只需要2022年夏季储存量注入水平的一半，就能在2023/2024供暖季开始时达到90%的储存量目标。
液化天然气目前占欧洲天然气进口量的三分之二，满足了2022/2023供暖季约三分之一的天然气需求。在供暖季，欧洲液化天然气进口量增长了25%，即200亿立方米，其中美国供应了超过45%的增量。
但预计2023年全球液化天然气供应量将仅增长4%（或逾200亿立方米），这不足以抵消对欧洲管道天然气供应的预期减少。
郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网
原文如下：
Global gas markets rebalancing and remains tight in 2023
Global gas markets are gradually rebalancing but are expected to remain tight in 2023 amid lower the pipeline gas deliveries to Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
The European and global gas markets suffered a major supply shock in 2022 when it reduced its pipeline gas deliveries to the European Union by 80%, triggering a global energy crisis.
Mild weather, an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a strong decline in gas demand helped to cushion the shock leaving Europe's storage 60% full.
"The reduced market strains and relatively well-stocked storage sites ahead of the summer are reasons for cautious optimism for supply security," the IEA said in its quarterly gas market report.
"The improved outlook for gas markets in 2023 is no guarantee against future volatility...global gas supply is set to remain tight in 2023, and the global balance is subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainties," the report said.
The risks, which include adverse weather, such as a dry summer, lower availability of LNG, and the possibility of a further decline in the deliveries to Europe, could renew market tensions and price volatility.
In Europe, gas consumption fell by a record 16%, or 55 billion cubic meters (bcm), during the 2022/23 heating season.
The report said that the EU only needs half of the storage injection level seen in summer 2022 to reach its 90% storage target by the start of the 2023/24 heating season.
LNG now accounts for two-thirds of Europe's gas imports, meeting around one-third of its gas demand during the 2022/23 heating season. European LNG imports rose by 25%, or 20 bcm during the heating season, with the United States supplying over 45% of incremental supply.
But global LNG supply is forecast to increase by just 4% (or over 20 bcm) in 2023, which would not be sufficient to offset the expected reduction in the piped gas supplies to Europe.
